"Successful investing is going against the momentum and against the things that seem most logical in the present space."

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Commercial Real Estate in U.S. Poised for 15 Percent Price Drop

By Hui-yong Yu and David M. Levitt
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. commercial real estate prices may fall as much as 15 percent over the next year in the broadest decline since the 2001 recession as rising borrowing costs force property owners to accept less or postpone sales.

"People aren't willing to do deals right now,'' said Howard Michaels, the New York-based chairman of Carlton Advisory Services Inc., which has arranged financing for real estate purchases including the Lipstick Building in midtown Manhattan. "The expectation is that prices will come down.''

Investors in July bought the fewest commercial properties since August 2006 and apartment building acquisitions were down 50 percent from June, data compiled by industry consultants at New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc. show. Archstone-Smith Trust in August postponed its $13.5 billion sale to a group led by Tishman Speyer Properties LP until October. Mission West Properties Inc., the owner of commercial buildings in Silicon Valley, said on Aug. 13 that the company's $1.8 billion sale may fail after a bank withdrew funding.

"There are so many deals falling apart,'' said David Lichtenstein, chief executive officer of Lakewood, New Jersey- based Lightstone Group, an owner of more than 20,000 apartments and 30 million square feet of office and retail space. "People who can get out are getting out.''

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