"Successful investing is going against the momentum and against the things that seem most logical in the present space."

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

ECB's Stark Sees a Sept/Oct Rate Increase

European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said today that "Euro-zone exporters have not suffered from a strong EUR up to now. What we have today is a new pattern of economic growth. But I would like to add one thing. Up to now we've seen a really gradual appreciation of the EUR. What would be problematic is if it should come to abrupt movements."

Regarding Euro-zone currency policy, he notes that an active currency policy would conflict with the ECB's main goal of ensuring price stability, and has no political support outside France.

On China, he said that, "The call by the Group of Seven is wholly right, that China must allow a stronger appreciation of its currency. But it is very hard to prove that a country is influencing its exchange rate in a targeted fashion, or that it is permitting a permanent undervaluation of its currency."

Commenting on Euro-zone currency policy, he notes that an active currency policy would conflict with the ECB's main goal of ensuring price stability, and has no political support outside France. When asked if the rising EUR might cause the ECB to hesitate about raising rates in September or October, he notes: "If the president says he has no reason to correct the expectations for (a rate rise in) September or October, then that is significant. We are still of the opinion that we have a robust, broad-based upturn."

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